Why the U.S. should be concerned about Ukraine’s assault on Russian aircraft

Ukraine astonished Russia — and the globe — when it initiated Operation Spider’s Web, a daring drone strike on June 1 that either damaged or destroyed numerous Russian aircraft. In the aftermath, Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated aerial attacks, launching unprecedented drone and missile strikes on Ukraine.

Beyond its confidentiality and intricacy, military analysts assert that Ukraine’s astonishing achievement with low-cost homemade drones against a larger, more formidable foe signals the dawn of a new and potentially alarming chapter in modern warfare.

In this revised conversation, the Gazette engaged with Eric Rosenbach, a senior lecturer at Harvard Kennedy School and former executive co-director at the Belfer Center, regarding how drones are swiftly transforming global conflicts. Rosenbach, a previous Army intelligence officer, served as chief of staff to U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter from 2015-2017, advising on Russia policy and leading innovations at the Defense Department.

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Apart from its success, what was noteworthy about Operation Spider’s Web?

The most noteworthy aspect is that it demonstrated Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep within Russia and target sites of significant strategic value. The technology behind the drones was crucial, but the primary point was their ability to project force in a manner likely to have profoundly affected Putin.

So not just the targets themselves, but also that Ukraine faced no pushback from the Russians?

Precisely. The targets were strategic aircraft, which are designed for nuclear weapon delivery. These aircraft were also employed by the Russians to execute many of their high-end missile offensives against Ukraine, including hypersonic and long-range cruise missiles. Thus, symbolically, this was hugely significant while also achieving operational impact.

Additionally, the intricacies involved in how the Ukrainians executed this operation are astonishing. Picture an enthralling spy thriller with Ukrainians smuggling drones across borders, likely loading them into trucks to position them perhaps within 5-10 kilometers of these military installations, launching the drones from the cargo truck roofs, and then navigating them to the intended targets. They must have undertaken extensive intelligence operations to accomplish this.

Many analysts describe this as a pivotal moment indicating we have entered a new phase of modern conflict. Do you concur?

Absolutely. It’s crucial to examine the sophistication of the Ukrainian drone initiative and its evolution. Initially, they relied heavily on readily available drone technology, attaching munitions to attack Russian tanks or infantry units.

Currently, the scenario is markedly different: they are crafting their own drones, utilizing a global supply chain for components, including parts from China, and are even engaged in 3D printing drones. Their production output exceeds what the U.S. is generating at present, or likely could be.

Moreover, they are advancing the capabilities of these weapons in terms of functionality and deployment. Much of this enhancement is supported by artificial intelligence and data, supplemented by battlefield learning.

“What would truly be concerning is if there were highly long-range drones with full autonomy.”

What should be the primary concerns for the U.S., NATO nations, and others whose drone programs are trailing behind Ukraine and Russia?

There are three key considerations. First, Taiwanese observers are meticulously analyzing Ukraine’s strategies and will likely apply this knowledge in the future regarding the use of affordable autonomous weapons for both defensive and offensive measures, especially how they manage deep strikes into Russia.

Xi Jinping has indicated that Taiwan will eventually integrate with China — some predict by 2027. While I remain skeptical of this timeline, it is crucial for Taiwan to acquire the capacity for deep strikes against China should the [People’s Liberation Army] attempt military action against the island. I recently authored a report discussing how Taiwan could draw insights from Ukraine to develop their own autonomous weapon systems.

Secondly, Europeans are quite apprehensive about the advancements Russians have made with autonomous weaponry. They pose questions such as, “What if the Russians sought to conduct a small-scale incursion into one of the Baltic states to challenge Article 5 of NATO primarily through autonomous weapons?” The European defense technology landscape is underdeveloped compared to both the U.S. and significantly behind Ukraine. This realization is not lost on the Europeans.

For the U.S., there is a troubling takeaway regarding homeland security. Consider the possibility of malicious actors — not necessarily state-sponsored, but potentially a terrorist organization — that might choose to 3D print similar drones within the United States or cross borders to replicate the Ukrainians’ methods.

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with a prominent assault. Many individuals are aware of this, yet it should truly emphasize that the U.S. is susceptible to such incidents.

How susceptible?

It’s improving. If you examine noteworthy public occasions, they’re deemed national security events. There exists quite effective technology designed to shield the president, for instance, when he’s in public, the Super Bowl, and other logically strategic moments for potential attacks.

It’s the less conspicuous situations that present a much softer target, which could still significantly affect both the American mindset and likely the economy.

What measures should the U.S. implement to avert an attack like this?

The United States will perpetually maintain a level of vulnerability to these assaults reliant on advanced technologies, whether they are cyberattacks, space-based offensives, or strikes made by autonomous armaments. The danger will never be eliminated entirely.

Thus, it’s crucial to acknowledge when you come across discussions of a “golden dome” intended to safeguard all aspects of the nation. It’s simply unrealistic to assume we will achieve zero risks or be wholly shielded by some fantastical defense mechanism.

This indicates that we likely need to enhance our investment in counter-UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) national defense. Recent headlines indicate that the U.S. is reallocating more of its support previously extended to Ukraine to bolster protection for Americans, whether abroad in the Middle East or even at home, in an effort to implement this.

How near are we to having something effective?

To a certain extent, there are quite effective counter-UAV systems that have been created, but their availability is very limited, preventing us from achieving the level of safety we would prefer. I believe this is more of a years-long process than a matter of months.

What could be the potential global repercussions from this Ukrainian demonstration?

From a geopolitical standpoint, I believe it clearly indicates that a peace deal is far from imminent. I anticipate a robust Russian retaliation. Historically, Putin and Russia have responded to events like this with overwhelming displays of force. This will likely be regrettable, and it could represent one of the most severe technological assaults we’ve observed against Ukraine.

One important point to note is that while the operation demonstrated sophistication, the drones were not completely autonomous. They did not rely solely on AI and didn’t travel 5,000 miles. It remained a localized operation with a human pilot managing the targeting. What would truly initiate concern is if drones were long-range and fully autonomous—capable of identifying, selecting, and targeting independently, without human intervention.

Why would that be more concerning?

The range is a crucial limiting factor presently, both in defense and offense, when employing autonomous weapons. Consider the U.S.: If someone operated a boat just off the coast of the United States, without even crossing the border, assembling everything there—and could achieve even a couple hundred miles range—it’s easy to see how many individuals in Washington, D.C., or other large cities could become quite vulnerable.

As I stated, truly fully autonomous weapons would enable a terrorist or nation-state to program targets, launch lethal drones, and then vanish. Since that technology is still several years away from full maturity, the chances of this happening now are minimal. The technology hasn’t been thoroughly developed or rigorously tested.

One concern remains: Historically, lethal technologies that haven’t undergone extensive testing can lead to unintended consequences, sometimes resulting in even worse outcomes due to the catalytic effects of spawning new classes of weapons.