What are the probabilities of selecting an immaculate NCAA bracket?

Kevin Rader is the senior preceptor in statistics and associate director of undergraduate studies.

Generally, the discourse revolves around the flawless bracket of 64 matches. Sixty-three teams will lose and one will prevail, thus to achieve the flawless bracket, you must make accurate selections in each of those matches. The formula is 1 over 2⁶³, which amounts to an astonishing figure, placing it in the quintillions. It resembles winning the Powerball two times in succession.

No individual has reached a flawless bracket ever, or at least not that is known. Currently, we are roughly halfway through the matches, and none of the perfect brackets persist among all the publicly accessible ones. It is improbable to occur within anyone’s lifetime.

The top seeds exceedingly seldom lose, especially not in the opening round. Therefore, it’s not akin to tossing 63 coins; it’s more like flipping 47 coins. Consequently, the odds are comparable to winning the lottery twice out of the next three draws.

The best likelihood for anyone to achieve a flawless bracket is if all the premier teams secure victories. However, there will always be unexpected outcomes — and good fortune in correctly predicting those.

Winning your office pool presents a nearly more challenging dilemma. It primarily hinges on the number of participants in the pool. You must distinguish yourself from your rivals. Yes, you select the favorites most of the time, but you should also choose a few upsets to set yourself apart from others, particularly in a large pool with numerous entries.

To accurately predict the upsets, utilize the available information. At a certain point, it nearly turns into a coin flip, but when there’s a significant discrepancy between the teams, a coin flip shouldn’t be employed; you ought to select chalk.

— As recounted to Sy Boles/Harvard Staff Writer