The economy of Oakland County has slowed with increasing unemployment and trade difficulties, yet researchers from the University of Michigan foresee a gradual employment recovery extending through 2027.
The previous year posed challenges for Michigan’s economy, with every county entering 2025 showing a higher unemployment rate compared to the start of 2024. Oakland County was not immune to this pattern, but its rise in unemployment was the fourth smallest among Michigan’s 83 counties.
In its yearly prediction regarding the Oakland County economy, the U-M Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics anticipates that job growth in Oakland County will recover at a moderate rate in 2025, averaging 0.5% annually through 2027. This anticipated growth would elevate the county’s average real wage to $77,300 by 2027, approximately $8,000 above the statewide average.
While job growth is projected to be slower than the 2% annual increase witnessed from 2010 to 2019, the county’s robust fundamentals—like a varied job market and high educational attainment—provide resilience, according to U-M economists.
“We anticipate job growth will remain subdued and inconsistent throughout the forecast period, with federal policy uncertainties looming large,” stated RSQE Director Gabriel Ehrlich, who co-authored the forecast alongside Jacob Burton, Donald Grimes, and Michael McWilliams.
Primary sectors forecasted to exhibit varied performance:
- The construction and private health and social services sectors are expected to continue demonstrating strength. Although construction added 3,200 jobs within the past two years, growth is anticipated to decelerate, yet is still expected to be 23% higher by 2027 compared to its 2019 level. The total job gains for construction and private health and social services from 2025 to 2027 are expected to reach 5,500 jobs.
- Finance and insurance are predicted to transition into consistent growth after a rise of 1,800 jobs in 2024. The sector should be 14% above its 2019 level by 2027.
- Manufacturing has faced recent difficulties, with a slight employment decline anticipated in 2025 before regaining some positions in 2026 and 2027. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing experienced job losses in 2024 and is estimated to lose more in 2025, with some recovery expected in the next two years due to the reopening of GM’s Orion Assembly plant.
- The recent downturn in professional, scientific, and technical services is alarming, with 5,900 jobs lost combined in 2023 and 2024. An additional 900 job losses are forecasted for this year before the sector stabilizes over the following two years.
- Administrative support and waste management services are projected to lose 1,500 jobs over the next three years.
- Employment in retail trade is expected to continue its decline over the next three years, losing an average of 200 jobs each year.
- Accommodations and food services are set to witness job growth resume in 2025, adding an average of 790 jobs annually through 2027.
Even though Oakland County encounters a more intricate and uncertain economic landscape than a year prior—similar to the situation throughout the state and nation—the U-M forecast retains a cautiously optimistic tone, recognizing that the path to full recovery will likely involve some complications.
“We are confident that Oakland’s long-term fundamentals remain robust,” stated Ehrlich. “Its highly educated workforce, significant concentration of professional employment, and low poverty levels provide resilience amidst uncertainty.”
In the long term, Oakland’s strong foundations are expected to triumph over short-term obstacles, enabling it to continue being one of the most affluent local economies in the nation, as they assert. The trajectory of federal economic policy, particularly concerning tariffs and international trade, poses notable short-term challenges.