Numerical data narrates one tale of climate change. Individuals narrate another.

Throughout the previous decade, Dustin Tingley has reevaluated his views on expertise.

As a public policy authority, Tingley has created quantitative approaches to grasp the complex challenges, alongside the often chaotic data within political economy, international commerce, and political studies. Recently, he has shifted his focus to the transition to renewable energy in light of the accelerating climate crisis.

In doing so, Tingley has discovered a transition in his focus from statistical datasets that articulate stories through numbers to narratives conveyed by individuals experiencing economic changes and times stressed by climate issues.

“I recognized that a wealth of expertise concerning this topic exists outside of academia,” remarked Tingley, the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and a professor within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences. “One must seek out where knowledge resides, and that knowledge is found in the real world. It’s embedded in the lived experiences of communities and individuals.”

While Tingley has not forsaken data and its ability to reveal insights beyond the scope of anecdotes and personal experiences, he has come to appreciate that data in isolation fails to provide a complete picture. Overlooked in high-level, number-driven discussions concerning potential job losses within the fossil fuel sector are the community-level repercussions resulting from shifts in industries that support not only family finances but also local and regional economies, extending to infrastructure concerns and the viability of downtown retail areas, as well as the capability of local administrations to finance essential services such as public safety and education.

“It’s straightforward to concentrate on fossil-fuel professions, which undeniably deserve attention, but what gets overlooked is that the local economic tax base relies on it,” Tingley expressed. “This wasn’t on my radar at all, yet it was one of the first issues people brought up. Local economic development officials or county commissioners would illustrate, for example, a picture of their local football stadium. I never recognized how deeply woven and entwined all of this was.”

This endeavor culminated in the 2023 publication “Uncertain Futures: How to Unlock the Climate Impasse.” Co-authored with Alexander Gazmararian, the book leans heavily on interviews, community gatherings, and various forums to provide a grassroots perspective on climate change and the impending energy transition. By focusing on individuals, entrepreneurs, and community leaders, it intends to extract lessons from those most likely to feel the effects of the transition.

“I certainly applied my quantitative expertise effectively,” Tingley noted. “Yet the qualitative interviews, along with listening and learning, were imperative as my segment of academia lacked a comprehensive view.”

Tingley’s altered viewpoint might have been inevitable. Although his involvement in international relations has predominantly been data-driven, a pivot toward transitioning communities mirrors the upheavals that impacted the areas where he was raised.

His family’s financial situation improved over the years, yet they faced challenges during his childhood. Residing in a rural area of North Carolina, they witnessed the importance of furniture making and tobacco farming—two industries that would soon face significant difficulties. The decline of the furniture industry was brought on by foreign competition and outsourcing, while tobacco has continually faced scrutiny due to health issues.

He also reminisces about visits to his father’s family in West Virginia, passing through coal territory, with its blasted mountains and lengthy coal trains. The economic consequences of the industry’s prolonged downturn were evident to even his youthful perspective, as he observed weather-beaten shacks and abandoned cars in front yards fading by his window.

Tingley has maintained a long-standing interest in the environment, which he asserts intensified after his family’s relocation to New Jersey during middle school, where the juxtaposition of oil refineries, urban sprawl, fertile farmland, and natural Pine Barrens struck him.

However, his initial academic enthusiasm lay in international relations. That fascination blossomed during the era surrounding the collapse of the Cold War, when he crouched under his desk during nuclear drills at his North Carolina elementary school, watched the Soviet Union crumble, and later, in high school during the mid-1990s, saw protests that drew attention to globalization’s disparities.

“I began to grasp the complexities of the world, gaining a more systematic understanding of war, conflict, the Cold War, and international trade — consuming narratives of protests — I became aware there’s an expansive world out there,” Tingley reflected.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Tingley pursued his studies at the University of Rochester, achieving a political science degree along with a minor in mathematics. After two years of teaching at a private institution in New York, he set out to…

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After completing his studies at Princeton, he became increasingly immersed in research during graduate school. His work integrated statistics with political science, and he initiated the creation of innovative statistical tools when the current options were inadequate for managing the intricate and often chaotic data sets.

“You should follow where the expertise lies, and that expertise is in the field. It resides in the real experiences of communities and individuals.”

“He’s brimming with enthusiasm and curious about numerous subjects,” remarked Kosuke Imai, one of Tingley’s lecturers at Princeton, who is now a professor of government and statistics at Harvard. “We collaborated on various statistical methods, but he later ventured into research on international trade and its impact on domestic entities. Now, he’s addressing climate change. His adaptability is impressive regarding understanding contemporary demands.”

Imai noted that Tingley’s enthusiasm is contagious and contributes to his effectiveness as a leader. While at Princeton, Tingley served as the captain of the department’s softball team— Imai remembers being occasionally lured from the whiteboard to the field.

At Harvard, Tingley has assumed a formal leadership position as deputy vice provost for advancements in education, where he has been instrumental in developing tools and resources for students and co-chaired a research initiative on climate education.

“His drive is contagious among his peers, friends, and collaborators, in addition to his strong work ethic,” Imai shared. “He’s pragmatic, holds no assumptions, and communicates in a very direct manner.”

Following his graduation in 2010, Tingley joined Harvard as an assistant professor of government, where his interest in climate change deepened over the subsequent years. After receiving tenure in 2015, he began seeking climate-related challenges to investigate.

His research ultimately delved into the U.S. Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which offers financial aid to those who have been laid off due to international competition. He pondered whether workers displaced by the transition to clean energy might require a similar program.

“I contemplated, all these fossil-fuel workers are going to be out of jobs; what will be our response to that?” Tingley stated. “I conducted polling on a proposal I termed ‘climate adjustment assistance,’ essentially querying, ‘Would you endorse aiding fossil-fuel workers during their transition?’ and found substantial bipartisan support.”

Since the release of “Uncertain Futures,” Tingley has continued his efforts. He is involved in a group at the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability that further explores themes discussed in his book. The research employs community surveys, public forums, and face-to-face interviews to gather insights and opinions on the most effective paths forward.

In August 2024, Tingley and pre-doctoral fellow Ana Martinez published a report, “Federal Land, Leasing, Energy, and Local Public Finances,” investigating the divergent management of revenues from fossil fuel extraction compared to wind and solar power facilities.

Revenues generated from fossil-fuel extraction on federal property are allocated to proximate towns and states, contributing significant financial support for them. Yet, the report indicated that for renewable energy, the federal government retains all earnings.

The two conducted a nationwide survey, discovering that large majorities of voters from both parties favor directing renewable energy revenue to local communities, a measure that could foster acceptance in the most affected areas.

“Merely persuading someone that there’s an issue is entirely distinct from establishing a solution that they can afford,” Tingley explained. “People make choices based on their wallets.”

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