EXPERTS ADVISORY
As fatal storms strike the U.S. in the Southern and Midwestern regions, the National Weather Service is alerting about “life-endangering, disastrous, and possibly unprecedented” floods.
Scholars at the University of Michigan are ready to provide insights on the situation as rainfall persists throughout the weekend, examining the influence of climate change on flooding and how urban environments can adapt.
Jonathan Overpeck, a multidisciplinary climate expert and dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability, specializes in climate and weather extremes, sea-level rise, the repercussions of climate change, and strategies to combat them. He contributed as a lead author for the significant Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports in 2007 and 2014.
“In light of aggravating climate change, it is prudent to heed warnings of heavy precipitation and potential floods,” stated Overpeck. “As the atmosphere heats up due to the human-induced greenhouse effect, it can—and frequently does—retain more moisture than in previous decades. Thus, when atmospheric conditions favor rain, it frequently results in heavier and more abundant rainfall, creating the ideal scenario for flooding. Exercise caution and regard flood warnings earnestly.”
Contact: [email protected]
Tony Reames is an associate professor at the School for Environment and Sustainability, where he established the Urban Energy Justice Lab and the Energy Equity Project. He also oversees the U-M SEAS Detroit Sustainability Clinic. Previously, he served as the deputy director for Energy Justice and principal deputy director for State and Community Energy Programs at the U.S. Department of Energy during the Biden administration.
“Intense flooding can cause rivers to overflow, putting strain on outdated infrastructure and resulting in significant destruction to homes, especially in areas that are low-lying or inadequately drained,” remarked Reames. “In cities like Detroit, these conditions often amplify existing housing vulnerabilities, disproportionately impacting low-income and minority communities.
“Our initiatives in Detroit highlight the urgent need for resilient infrastructure and proactive community involvement to tackle these issues. Equitable strategies and investments must focus on the most vulnerable regions to effectively lessen the impacts of flooding. Through collaboration with local leaders and residents, we can create approaches that are both innovative and inclusive, resulting in a more just, equitable, and sustainable tomorrow.”
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Julie Arbit is a researcher associated with the Center for Social Solutions, concentrating on projects that connect practitioners with communities in crises, water infrastructure, and the water workforce. She recently co-authored a report advocating for enhancements to the infrastructure used by the National Weather Service for modeling and predicting floods.
“These prolonged storms have resulted in widespread devastation, with the threat of unprecedented winds and rainfall continuing into the weekend. Although the entire region is under serious threat, forecasting models and infrastructure are limited in their effectiveness to provide highly localized alerts, especially as weather patterns become increasingly erratic,” Arbit explained. “Consequently, many individuals experience ‘warning fatigue’ when extensive areas, such as counties, receive alerts for storms that do not significantly impact everyone in that area. This makes it challenging to differentiate between alerts for mildly disruptive storms and genuinely life-threatening events, leading to desensitization among the populace.
“Whether you have become desensitized or you diligently follow every alert and radar map, a crucial aspect of enduring the storm is comprehending your surroundings: Where are the meandering streams that can inundate nearby roads almost instantly? Where might large tree limbs be near power lines? What items on your basement floor could be susceptible to mold with just an inch of water?
“Engage with neighbors, particularly those who depend on electricity for medical devices or have limited mobility. Resilience is not automatic—it is cultivated through local awareness, preparedness, and shared understanding of the community’s needs and priorities.”
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Mohammed Ombadi serves as an assistant professor specialized in climate and space sciences and engineering within the College of Engineering. He is available to discuss the reasons behind Detroit’s susceptibility to flooding and is actively investigating strategies to enhance the city’s flood resilience.
“Detroit’s susceptibility to flooding is increasingly influenced by various interconnected elements. The city is undergoing more severe precipitation extremes due to global warming, which heightens the chances of flash floods and strains the existing drainage systems,” Ombadi remarked. “Moreover, a transition in winter precipitation from snow to rainfall escalates runoff volumes during the colder months, further burdening infrastructure.
“Some sections of Detroit’s infrastructure, particularly the stormwater systems, were designed for a climate that is now outdated, rendering them incapable of managing current rainfall patterns. Finally, variable water levels in the Detroit River heighten the risk for neighborhoods situated along its banks, making them more prone to flooding. These factors collectively highlight the pressing necessity for adaptive urban planning and climate-resilient infrastructure to protect the city from the mounting risk of flooding.”
Contact: [email protected]
Andrew Hoffman holds a professorship in sustainable enterprise, which includes joint roles at the Ross School of Business and the School for Environment and Sustainability. His research employs organizational behavior models and theories to grasp the cultural and institutional dimensions of environmental challenges faced by organizations.
“Heightened storm frequency and intensity have become the standard in a world affected by climate change. This is the consensus among the nation’s scientists, and more specifically, it reflects the insights of the country’s insurers,” Hoffman stated. “Home insurance premiums are escalating rapidly nationwide in response to extreme weather claims. And it’s not only the major storms that capture headlines.
“Secondary hazards—an insurance term that encompasses floods, hailstorms, high winds, lightning strikes, tornadoes, and wildfires that cause small to moderate damages—are emerging as the primary contributor to the insurability dilemma. These pose the greatest concern here in the Midwest. In order to maintain financial stability, insurers are raising premiums, limiting coverage, and even withdrawing from particular markets as they consider them uninsurable. Insurance, in numerous respects, serves as an early warning sign of the changing climate.”
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Valeriy Ivanov serves as a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the College of Engineering. His research encompasses terrestrial hydrology, ecohydrology, flood studies, and climate impact evaluations, with a focus on quantifying uncertainty.
“The National Weather Service has issued flood alerts impacting 32 million individuals, as severe weather forecasts indicate catastrophic flooding risks spanning a vast area from Arkansas to Ohio, with some locales possibly receiving over a foot of rain,” Ivanov explained. “They stress the danger of life-threatening flash floods, especially in western Kentucky and parts of Tennessee and Arkansas. Significant rises are anticipated in major rivers, such as the Ohio and Wabash, potentially resulting in record flooding across Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, and Mississippi.
“Currently, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are forecasted from central Texas extending through Arkansas and Louisiana into the lower Ohio Valley by Friday and Friday night. Southern Michigan may see rainfall accumulate to 1.5 inches in the next five days. Communities should be advised to prepare for widespread and potentially enduring interruptions to their daily routines due to these extreme weather scenarios.”
Contact: [email protected]
Richard Rood is a professor emeritus in climate and space sciences and engineering at the College of Engineering, and also serves as a professor emeritus at the School of Environment and Sustainability.
“A slowly moving storm across the central United States is predicted to create what the National Weather Service describes as generational flooding—or an unprecedented event,” Rood indicated. “Flooding is expected in regions that do not typically experience such events. This follows a meteorological system that has not only saturated the soil but also triggered more than 60 tornadoes. Communities may face the dual challenges of damage from flooding alongside the devastation caused by tornadoes.
“The intense rainfall is fueled by increased evaporation from the Gulf of Mexico, which is approximately 2°F warmer than the 30-year average. This weather system exemplifies the ongoing warming climate, presenting challenges in responding to emerging weather phenomena while also navigating the terminology of alerts and warnings.”
Contact: [email protected]
Abby Hutson is a research scientist at the School for Environment and Sustainability and the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research. Her work models weather and climate phenomena within the Great Lakes Region, aiding in long-term climate forecasts and supporting regional meteorologists. A significant aspect of her research involves identifying extreme precipitation patterns and anomalies linked to various atmospheric conditions.
“In recent days, a broad expanse of low pressure has been developing in the upper atmosphere over the western half of the United States. Simultaneously, a broad region of high pressure has formed over the Southeast,” Hutson elaborated. “This atmospheric configuration is referred to as a ‘blocking pattern,’ which induces weather events—such as cold fronts that usually progress swiftly from west to east—to remain stationary over specific areas.
“The current blocking pattern is also arranged in such a way that allows abundant moisture from the southern coast to be transported northward across the continent. Once this moisture interacts with the stationary cold front, it results in significant rain accumulations that linger in one location. We anticipate that rainfall will persist over the Ohio Valley and Mid-South for another 2 to 3 days, with some areas potentially receiving 10-15 inches of rain.”
Contact: [email protected]