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The Missouri Legislature has approved a scheme to redraw the state’s congressional districts, potentially conceding a Democrat-leaning seat to Republicans and granting the GOP a 7-1 district edge. Experts on electoral rights at Washington University in St. Louis assert that partisan mid-decade redistricting, once quite uncommon, might become the standard.
Travis Crum, a law professor, specializes in electoral rights and electoral law. He has investigated the influence of racially divided voting in redistricting. In this discussion, he evaluates the legality of the Missouri decision and the likelihood of more states adopting similar measures.
Is mid-decade redistricting permissible in Missouri, according to the state’s constitution?
There is no federal ban against mid-decade redistricting. In its 2006 ruling in LULAC v. Perry, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed Texas to modify its congressional map. This case is distinguishable because Texas was altering a court-imposed map rather than one drawn by the Legislature, yet that difference may not be compelling. Furthermore, there is no federal prohibition against partisan gerrymandering.
Potential challenges may arise under the Missouri Constitution, arguing that redistricting can only occur immediately following the census and that the new districts are not compact. We will have to wait to see what Missouri state courts declare regarding these challenges.
Could this strategy backfire on Missouri Republicans? In what way?
It is conceivable that in a wave election year, such as 2006 or 2010, these districts might turn against Republicans and favor Democrats instead. Indeed, one of the reasons moderate Republicans opposed a 7-1 map back in 2021 was this very concern.
What do you foresee for this movement? Will an increasing number of states adopt this approach? Or will most wait until 2030?
There are indications that additional states may join the mid-decade redistricting trend. South Carolina and Maryland are high on the list. California’s referendum will play a crucial role in determining if Democrats can counterbalance the mid-decade redistricting in Texas and Missouri. If they cannot, then another blue state is likely to redraw its maps.
With the previous norm against mid-decade redistricting weakening, we should not presume that redistricting in 2030 will be confined to 2031 or 2032. We could be reverting to the late 1800s practice where states frequently engaged in mid-decade redistricting for partisan advantage.
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