Matt Davenport:
Welcome to the Michigan Minds Podcast, where we delve into the extensive knowledge from faculty experts at the University of Michigan. I’m Matt Davenport, a science journalist and public relations liaison with Michigan News. Climate change dominates the discussions of many individuals today. We are witnessing disasters like droughts, hurricanes, and floods becoming increasingly severe and common, driven by climate change. Concurrently, the new presidential administration has committed to undoing environmental regulations. Today, we welcome Jonathan Overpeck, the Dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability, who can offer vital insights and context. Thank you for being here today, Dean Overpeck.

Jonathan Overpeck:
Thank you for having me. It’s wonderful to be here.

Matt Davenport:
To begin, let’s discuss what we discovered concerning the past year, this year, which indicates a new record high in warming. What implications does this have for our planet?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Well, you know, we shouldn’t focus solely on last year, 2024. We should also consider ’23 because what astonished scientists was how significant the increase in global temperatures was in 2023. It represented the largest rise we’ve ever recorded. Part of that stems from the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, which, when it occurs, heats the entire planet. However, we’ve previously experienced El Niños. We encounter them regularly and have never witnessed a change of this magnitude. So, there’s definitely something occurring. We anticipated a slight cooling in 2024, but instead, it became even warmer. In fact, it surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which is that critical threshold set by the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. Thus, the planet is warming more rapidly than anticipated. It’s intensifying the warming. The major question is why we are experiencing this additional warming. Scientists are diligently trying to unravel that mystery. It appears that a poorly understood feedback mechanism in the climate system related to clouds—specifically low clouds that enhance the planet’s albedo from space—might be contributing. If we lose these clouds more swiftly in a warming scenario than we previously believed, the planet could heat up more rapidly. It could be that we’ve crossed a threshold where this feedback is initiating. So, perhaps these last two years have delivered an alarming lesson. Another noteworthy point is that 2025 started off even warmer than 2024, and the last few days have also set new records.

Matt Davenport:
Incredible.

Jonathan Overpeck:
Yes.

Matt Davenport:
This year, will we gather enough information to validate this theory about clouds reflecting some of the radiation, or will it require further time to ascertain the exact causes?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Well, certainly, it requires time. The question is, with more observations of what’s transpiring in the climate system rather than relying solely on climate models, we can gain substantial knowledge. So, we will be evaluating this hypothesis throughout this year and the next. We’ll see how well all these ideas hold up. Scientists are also examining other possibilities, but I won’t delve into those. We can explore multiple elements that might be causing the planet to warm faster than we initially expected. Perhaps the most critical aspect is determining whether this noticeable acceleration in global warming, which we’ve previously observed in the ’70s, is substantiated. In other words, will we continue to accelerate at this new rate? And that would be truly disheartening if that turn of events occurs.

Matt Davenport:
You just mentioned that pivotal 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. I’m curious about how we should articulate this in the public domain. What is the origin of that figure? What does it signify, and why is it important?

Jonathan Overpeck:
I’ve collaborated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which consists of scientists globally addressing climate issues, supported by the World Meteorological Organization in the UN. They queried us, the policymakers from 196 countries involved, about what constitutes detrimental interference in the climate system. Essentially, they sought to comprehend how much warming is perilous and how we can prevent reaching that level of warming. Thus, a couple of decades ago, endeavors began to identify that threshold. By 2015, during the Paris Climate Agreement conference, they settled on the idea that 1.5 represented that dangerous stipulation. Naturally, it’s perilous for some communities and less so for others, influenced by geographic location and climate extremes experienced. Nevertheless, the consensus emerged that crossing that threshold would lead to significant challenges on our planet. What we’ve discovered since then is how we can adapt and become more resilient amidst climate change. In the United States, 1.5 degrees isn’t deemed too dire currently since we’re here now and still operating. However, in regions like Pakistan or Libya, where they’ve endured severe climate extremes—massive rains, floods, and considerable loss of life—1.5 is indeed critical. The crucial point is we are still experiencing warming, and it appears we may be escalating. Currently, scientists are striving to maintain warming below two degrees Celsius. However, based on the commitments from countries worldwide, we’re still on a trajectory toward significantly exceeding that threshold, which is disheartening, particularly for nations more susceptible to these changes.

Matt Davenport:
Let me pause for a moment. I want to inquire about what actions we might take regarding this issue, but I recognize it’s a colossal question. Therefore, I’m curious if we should transition to the policy angle, considering the United States has once again withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement. Hence, we are discussing how this appears dismal for someone…

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that follows current events and what our leaders are discussing regarding climate can intensify that. However, I’m also hearing accounts of activities happening at the community and local levels where individuals are still striving to lower temperatures and mitigate the effects of climate change. How do you perceive the path we’re on in contrast to what we can accomplish to counter it?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Another way to phrase this is to ask if I am optimistic.

Matt Davenport:
Indeed.

Jonathan Overpeck:
I do hold optimism. Certainly, the actions of the current administration are detrimental regarding climate initiatives and scientific endeavors in the United States. Yet, concurrently, while the federal government is stepping back from making positive strides on climate change, numerous local and state governments are still taking significant measures. There are 24 states part of a climate alliance actively striving to cut their emissions to zero. Michigan is included among those states. More than half of the nation’s GDP originates from these states, which also encompass over half of the American populace. Thus, we’re still vigorously working in various regions of this country to lower our greenhouse gas emissions.
During the Biden administration, considerable financial resources were allocated for climate initiatives, not only in the blue states but also in red states. States like Texas are making tremendous progress in renewable energy development. It’s particularly ironic, given that the oil sector there attempts to thwart climate action efforts. Despite this, there’s a significant amount of positive developments within the United States. And remember, while the president withdrew us from the global climate agreement, over 190 countries continue to engage in the fight against climate change. This suggests substantial climate action is ongoing worldwide.
The nation making the most aggressive advancements is China, but Europe is also making notable progress. Considering all of this, there’s a wealth of climate action occurring. Perhaps the most promising aspect is that as solar, wind, energy storage, and various other technologies are adopted, along with electrified vehicles, the costs associated with these technologies are decreasing significantly. They are falling, having already become cheaper than coal, and they are set to drop well below the costs associated with oil and gas energy. Therefore, the energy market is eventually poised to outcompete fossil fuels naturally. The challenge is that this transition will take longer than desirable, resulting in greater warming than we would prefer.

Matt Davenport:
Alongside the warming patterns, a topic you explore in depth is droughts. If I recall correctly, your work helped coin the term megadrought. What is the current situation, especially in the US, regarding water availability?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Indeed. I’ve been examining droughts for many years, primarily because I resided in the western states for a significant duration—30 years in Colorado and subsequently in Arizona. Drought is a significant concern in those regions. There have been two global megadroughts recorded. The term “megadrought” refers to a drought lasting for multiple decades. Recent studies, including tree ring analyses, illustrate many instances of such conditions. However, the sole megadroughts documented worldwide since the establishment of global meteorological records in the 19th century include the Sahel drought of the 1970s and 1980s, and the ongoing Southwest United States drought that began in 1999 and persists to this day. Therefore, this drought still significantly impacts a vast area of the United States, sometimes extending into Canada and down to Mexico, and occasionally affecting the Central Plains. The core of this issue is situated in the southwest; hence, we refer to it as the Southwest megadrought.
The situation is influenced by several factors. One common misconception about drought is the expectation that rainfall will eventually return. However, we must also consider global warming. Anyone with a garden is aware that on particularly hot summer days, increased watering is necessary to prevent plants from wilting. Scientifically, as temperatures rise, the atmosphere can retain more moisture and requires more from the land surface, leading to evaporation or evapotranspiration, which extracts water from plants and soil. This phenomenon intensifies drought conditions in the west and illustrates what I prefer to refer to as a “ratification.” These two elements interact intricately.
In the United States, the arid regions of the southwest are expanding northward and eastward, increasing drought risks all the way to the Mississippi and likely affecting areas in Michigan and further east. The more we heat the planet, the greater that drought risk becomes. When I mention drought risk, I refer to its frequency, intensity, and duration. This poses a genuine threat to our food supply and crop cultivation capabilities. This is why many have turned to irrigation instead of solely relying on rainfall. Even in Michigan, there has been significant investment in irrigation systems for crops like cherries due to unreliable rainfall patterns exacerbated by rising temperatures.

Matt Davenport:
In recent times, I’ve heard considerable dialogue about Michigan being a climate haven. Given that perspective, could Michigan truly be considered a climate haven? Is that an overly optimistic view, or does it accurately reflect our circumstances?

Jonathan Overpeck:
I would characterize it as a relative climate haven. Michigan certainly qualifies as a relative climate haven, primarily because of its northern position. Asheville once believed it was too far north to experience the impacts of hurricanes, which—thankfully—holds true for our region. However, we are experiencing increasingly intense precipitation, similar to the rest of the globe, because the atmosphere demands and holds more moisture under appropriate meteorological conditions. This moisture can deliver heavier rainfall, potentially leading to flooding events. This explains the flooding we have observed in Detroit and in parts of Michigan’s farmland.
Yet, relatively speaking, we fare much better than states like Florida or the southern regions overall. One significant concern relating to climate change is heat waves. It’s March, and while Texas is expected to reach 108 degrees, we’re looking at a comfortable 70 degrees here. The takeaway is that heat waves will occur here, but they simply won’t be as severe, especially during the hot summer months, compared to many other regions. As previously mentioned, hurricanes are a known threat, but we also don’t contend with sea-level rise here. Although the Great Lakes experience fluctuations, they pale in comparison to the dramatic changes faced by coastal areas, where homes continue to be threatened by rising ocean levels.
This makes Michigan a definite relative climate haven. Moreover, what many may not realize outside of the Great Lakes region is that we hold over 20% of the world’s unfrozen surface freshwater within the Great Lakes. This represents an invaluable resource that we are diligently working on at the University of Michigan and other institutions to strategize effective management for the future, as that water will be increasingly sought after and crucial to have.

Matt Davenport:
Linking that idea to the motivations for…

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Hope you articulated earlier. You’re an instructor, as well. I’m interested, do you have recommendations for particularly young individuals who are enthusiastic about combating climate change at the University of Michigan or elsewhere, where their actions might create the most impact, the initiatives they can undertake to advocate for a cooler future?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Indeed. It’s fascinating speaking with students at this moment. They’re concerned that the employment market is contracting, due to the actions of the current administration in Washington. However, that’s simply not accurate, as Mother Nature, in response to our behaviors towards her, is generating increasing crises related to climate, ecology, and sustainability, both in the U.S. and globally. Thus, our mission at the University of Michigan is to provide a world-class education to our undergraduate and graduate students that equips them to address these challenges in a warming world. This is an excellent time to pursue an education that enables you to tackle not only climate change but also issues related to water, food security, biodiversity, the Great Lakes, invasive species, and harmful algal blooms. The list is extensive.
Currently, the demand for individuals trained to address these environmental and sustainability challenges, as well as climate issues, significantly exceeds the available talent. Even though opportunities in federal positions may be dwindling at present, other governmental and nonprofit roles are only anticipated to increase in the coming years. So, this is an ideal moment to acquire the education required to tackle these critical problems that will characterize the 21st century.

Matt Davenport:
Nonetheless, I think it’s quite normal. We’re witnessing a prevalent sense of anxiety regarding the climate, particularly among younger individuals. I’m curious, do you have suggestions for those experiencing such feelings and coping mechanisms for them?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Absolutely. We receive that inquiry frequently from students, and also from fellow faculty members. These are challenging times concerning the events in Washington and global climate developments. There are many additional concerns that occupy our thoughts, so I believe it’s essential to identify ways to cultivate resilience. One approach is to actively connect with your family, friends, and community to obtain the support you require. Another is to discover actionable steps you can take. There are myriad options.
For instance, in terms of climate, each of us can contribute to minimizing our energy consumption, particularly fossil-fuel energy. We can explore dietary changes toward a more carbon-friendly lifestyle. The possibilities are numerous.
However, perhaps the most crucial action is to engage in conversations with others. Speak with your neighbors, converse with your friends. Initiate discussions about climate, and what it signifies in terms of experiencing significant climate change or addressing the issue, and then ensure that you vote and encourage others to participate in voting as well. We currently witness firsthand the consequences of electing individuals who disregard science and oppose climate action. Things deteriorate, yet we possess the power to improve conditions, and much of that power is exercised at the ballot box.

Matt Davenport:
Do you have any techniques for engaging with someone who may be skeptical or indifferent regarding climate change?

Jonathan Overpeck:
Well, it’s important to acknowledge that in earlier stages of my career, the term climate denier held significance. While some individuals still exist who refute climate change, it has become so evident that very few people continue to deny it today. Most are aware of its existence, recognize it as a problem, and understand that it must be addressed. The real question revolves around how much priority they assign to it compared to ensuring their family’s basic needs or addressing other economic or cultural issues when they cast their votes. Therefore, when I engage with anyone, I prioritize understanding their perspective, respecting their views, and discovering common ground to facilitate discussion. This can be challenging, but living in a predominantly conservative region like Arizona, I frequently encountered such scenarios.
There’s always a way to connect, and you simply need to search for that… I enjoy fishing, birdwatching, hiking, and immersing myself in nature. Interestingly, that’s something likely shared by many individuals in Michigan, allowing for meaningful conversations. This is why, for example, Great Lakes science and policy enjoys bipartisan support; you must uncover that common ground. Respect is essential, and establishing at least a basic rapport before delving into discussions is vital. It’s ineffective to simply assert your perspective. We observe that continually on television. It’s far more productive to foster a relationship, even if it’s quite new, and have a dialogue to identify that common ground.

Matt Davenport:
This has been an outstanding conversation. Thank you very much for being here today and sharing your insights with us.

Jonathan Overpeck:
It’s been my pleasure. I always enjoy discussing these topics.

Matt Davenport:
Thank you for tuning into this episode of Michigan Minds, produced by Michigan News, part of the university’s Office of the Vice President for Communications.