Is nuclear energy the solution to a low-carbon future?

Najmedin Meshkati serves as a professor in civil and environmental engineering, industrial systems engineering, and international relations at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering. The following is an elaborated response to USC News’ inquiry “What role will nuclear power have in the future?”

The planet is confronting an unprecedented surge in energy requirements. With the global populace accelerating towards 9 billion individuals, electricity demands are anticipated to escalate from the current 9,000 gigawatts to an astounding 15,000 gigawatts by 2050 — a 70% increase that surpasses all prior energy shifts in human history. This is not simply a hypothetical rise. For instance, just the AI infrastructure: By 2030, data centers are projected to consume 160% more energy than now, utilizing electricity equivalent to Canada’s entire annual output (about 650 terawatt hours). This single technological sector will necessitate more energy than 38 million American households put together.

The International Energy Agency corroborates this trend, indicating that developing nations will constitute 90% of electricity demand augmentation by 2050, with India’s per-capita electricity usage expected to double in just 15 years. Meanwhile, China already utilizes more electricity than the United States, the European Union, and Japan combined — yet still has considerable room for growth. These are not just conjectural estimates but mathematical certainties propelled by industrial growth, rapid urbanization, and technological advancements. Absent significant energy innovation, we face a future where demand severely exceeds supply, culminating in economic turbulence and geopolitical strife over increasingly dwindling resources.

Nuclear energy is strategically positioned to act as a fundamental element of the worldwide transition to a low-carbon future. In contrast to inconsistent renewable sources like wind and solar, nuclear power delivers dependable, large-scale baseload electricity that can stabilize energy grids and enhance clean energy portfolios. Recent legislative and industry movements emphasize this revived momentum.

By 2050, nuclear energy capacity is expected to increase threefold globally to attain net-zero emissions goals, as committed by 22 nations at COP28 in Dubai in December 2023. Following the initial commitment at COP28, six more countries have joined the declaration at COP29 in November 2024. The anticipated restart of the Palisades nuclear power facility in Michigan, which was decommissioned in 2022, along with Unit 1 of the Three Mile Island nuclear power facility, which was not involved in the 1979 incident but was closed in 2019 due to economic issues, is anticipated by mid-2028. Reports suggest that the Duane Arnold nuclear facility in Iowa, which halted operations in 2020, may also seek a restart.

This unprecedented trend would signify the first instance in U.S. history where decommissioned nuclear facilities are reinstated, supported by bipartisan political backing on a federal level. According to recent news, owing to the unexpectedly gradual growth of renewable energy in Germany, there is a vocal and rising movement to bring back some of the country’s 11 deactivated nuclear reactors.

Emerging nuclear technologies provide promising avenues for addressing many legacy challenges associated with conventional nuclear energy. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are expected to reduce costs, construction durations, and land requirements while enhancing safety mechanisms through passive cooling and subterranean containment. Furthermore, innovative reactor models — such as molten salt, gas-cooled, and thorium-fueled systems — are being devised for enhanced efficiency and minimized waste production. These advancements could transform the energy sector in the upcoming decades by delivering nearly limitless, carbon-free power with minimal safety and waste concerns.

Nuclear fusion, once seen as the “holy grail” of energy, has re-emerged as a promising energy frontier, with recent breakthroughs bringing practical applications closer. Unlike fission, fusion presents distinct benefits: minimal radioactive waste, no meltdown
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threat and energy originating from plentiful assets. The National Ignition Facility’s accomplishment in December 2022 of reaching ignition, generating more energy than it consumed, represented a pivotal moment in history. This achievement has stimulated investment and creativity. Concurrently, global initiatives like ITER keep progressing in plasma management capabilities. Although challenges in material engineering remain in addressing the extreme conditions of fusion, the sector has unequivocally transitioned from theoretical exploration to technological application — with the potential to provide a secure, clean, and inexhaustible energy supply.

To fully harness nuclear energy’s capabilities, a multifaceted policy strategy is crucial. Governments ought to invest in financing solutions — such as loan guarantees, production tax incentives, and collaborations between public and private sectors — to mitigate risks associated with nuclear investments. Regulatory structures should be updated to facilitate licensing processes while ensuring strict safety standards. Initiatives for public engagement need to be executed to restore confidence in nuclear energy through transparent dialogue and community participation. Most importantly, nuclear power must be strategically incorporated alongside renewables in both national and global energy strategies. If these obstacles are addressed with the necessary urgency and creativity, nuclear energy could evolve into not just a feasible choice but a critical component of the transition to clean energy.

After four decades of conducting thorough nuclear safety research and assessments at power plants globally — including Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima Daiichi, and Fukushima Daini, I have arrived at an unavoidable realization: The international nuclear power sector survives or falters as a cohesive unit. This tightly knit chain or interrelated network is inherently susceptible at its most fragile point. The current revival of trust in nuclear energy — this recent “nuclear renaissance” accompanied by a surge of logical optimism and (to paraphrase former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) “rational exuberance” — could disintegrate instantly under the burden of a single catastrophic incident anywhere across the globe. Historical evidence reinforces this cyclical trend: The initial renaissance post-Three Mile Island was extinguished by Chernobyl, and the subsequent one was obliterated by Fukushima. Presently, we are observing the third “nuclear renaissance” within a mere 46 years. The harsh truth of this industry remains unchanged: “A nuclear mishap anywhere constitutes a nuclear mishap everywhere.”

The necessity is unmistakable: The global nuclear power industry must rapidly amplify international, interdisciplinary cooperative efforts to enhance its safety culture, which can be likened to the human body’s immune system that safeguards against pathogens and combats diseases, particularly concentrating on its most exposed operations. This underscores the necessity for the sector to reinforce its cooperative endeavors by employing engineering diplomacy to strengthen its safety culture, especially for its most vulnerable components.