Anticipated significant U.S. foreign aid reductions forecast consequences abroad — and domestically

A significantly greater number of individuals worldwide will suffer unnecessary deaths from AIDS and famine; American agricultural producers will face financial repercussions; and Russia and China will deepen relationships with developing nations that were once allied with the U.S., building new political allegiances — potentially leading to future economic benefits.

This reflects some of the potential repercussions from the Trump administration’s recent choice to implement substantial reductions in foreign aid programs, including USAID and the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, known as PEPFAR, according to a group of former diplomats.

“We will have to contemplate different strategies moving forward,” remarked Reuben E. Brigety II, a former U.S. Ambassador to South Africa during the Biden administration on February 27 at the beginning of a series of online conversations organized by the Harvard Center for International Development (CID) featuring government officials, policymakers, and NGO specialists that will explore the trajectory of American foreign assistance.

Brigety emphasized that the reduction will weaken the connections between the U.S. and significant segments of the global population, yielding multiple repercussions, both anticipated and unforeseen.

“None of this alters the reality that epidemic diseases disregard borders,” he stated. “None of this negates the fact that emergencies will arise” necessitating international collaboration.

A prediction by Richard A. Boucher, a former U.S. ambassador to Cyprus, was more pointed. “Individuals will perish,” he stated, identifying AIDS and hunger as dangers, as well as fatalities “at the hands of oppressive regimes over whom we lack influence” due to our withdrawal of aid and diplomacy.

Boucher, who also served as former deputy secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and U.S. assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, warned that other nations, less aligned with U.S. interests, may quickly step in to fill the void.

“If we lack that seat at the table, China is poised to take action,” he remarked. “We will lose global influence; we will lose individual influence; and the United States will suffer because of it.”

Brigety concurred. “There is no scenario in which American global or domestic interests are better served in the absence of dynamic American leadership abroad. None.”

That type of engagement, he emphasized, “facilitates access to international markets for American products.” Furthermore, collaboration with foreign governments provides us “with intelligence on very specific threats to American interests, including American lives.”

Geoffrey Pyatt, former U.S. Ambassador to Greece and Ukraine, provided an illustration: In sub-Saharan Africa, he indicated, “USAID’s Power Africa initiative has invested roughly a billion since 2013 in facilitating and minimizing risks associated with power generation.”

This initiative was conducted with U.S. corporate partners, including Chevron and ExxonMobil, “American corporations leveraging Power Africa activities to broaden their markets,” stated Pyatt, who also held the position of former assistant secretary of state for energy resources. What have the results been so far? The initiative has “leveraged $29 billion” for U.S. corporate partners.

Boucher pointed out that American agricultural producers benefit from the billions of dollars’ worth of grain that USAID acquires for international distribution, as do American workers who travel to assist in constructing and managing new infrastructure developed through international aid.

“America has historically exercised influence because we had the resources and the authority. Remove those resources, and we are operating on one leg,” he remarked.

As we withdraw, Brigety continued, all the Chinese need to convey is: “‘Look, you cannot rely on the Americans.’”

Discussion facilitator Fatema Z. Sumar, executive director of the CID, redirected the discussion towards other future projections.

PEPFAR, Brigety articulated, not only enhanced African healthcare by delivering medications and services to combat AIDS, but also reinforced the continent with enduring results. “Some of the earliest and most effective research globally regarding how to tackle COVID amidst the pandemic was conducted in South Africa.”

In the energy sector, the panelists identified logistical and various challenges.

The U.S. has led the deployment of $5 billion in energy support to Ukraine, largely backed by 29 other nations and multilateral organizations involved, Pyatt noted. “However, only USAID possesses the authority to grant funds and the capability to push that money out the door,” he added.

“I am deeply concerned that we have dismantled this ability — because next time, envision a Chinese assault on Taiwan — we will lack the toolset to respond effectively.”

We are losing “the institutional memory of those who were once able to execute this work,” he said.

Boucher added, “You lack influence if you are not present.” Historically, “we were the ones who could engage and facilitate change.”

Instead, Brigety reiterated, that opens the door for China, Russia, and private entities to step in, with Pyatt referring to U.S. government bodies such as the Development Finance Corporation. Among these are former private USAID contractors, he mentioned.

“If I were a USAID contractor whose 80 percent of funding just got revoked, I would swiftly establish offices in Jeddah [Saudi Arabia], Dubai [UAE], and Doha [Qatar], and likely Kuwait,” he mentioned. “Numerous Middle Eastern nations recognize the economic prospects on the continent and are eager not just to benefit from it, but also understand that to reap those benefits, one must assist in developing those economies.”

Sumar asked the panelists what advice they would give to students poised to embark on careers in public service.

“The profession has undoubtedly become more daunting,” stated Pyatt. Nevertheless, for those who might still secure positions in the shrinking sector, “it remains an incredible career,” he affirmed.

“I cannot fathom anything in the private sector that offers the level of fulfillment derived from representing a nation that is viewed as the good actor in a challenging international landscape.”