How an astronaut assesses risk

When Anil Menon embarks on his journey into space aboard a Russian Soyuz rocket next June, he will carry with him twenty years of experience as a physician, engineer, military pilot, and NASA flight surgeon — along with a deeply personal grasp of risk. 

“I would embrace the risk to engage in this endeavor because I believe there’s a component of sheer inspiration tied to it,” stated Menon ’99. “I am convinced that, in the end, the human spirit is elevated by advancing in areas, whether it’s creating something like Apple devices, venturing into space, or advancing research and medicine. All these aspects are critically important.”

Menon’s career has unfolded as a sequence of risks. After completing his studies at Harvard, he obtained a master’s in mechanical engineering from Stanford University as well as a medical degree from Stanford Medical School. He joined the California Air National Guard during his emergency medicine residency, subsequently deploying to Afghanistan. He then sought a residency in aerospace medicine at the University of Texas Medical Branch-Galveston, serving twice with the Air Force critical care air transport unit to care for and transport injured soldiers. In 2014, he began as a NASA flight surgeon, assisting long-duration crew members aboard the International Space Station. 

His work on Earth supporting astronauts on the ISS motivated Menon to take yet another significant step. In 2022, he signed up for training as a NASA astronaut. The following two years involved preparation: mastering the supersonic T-38 jet, learning Russian, and practicing spacewalks in submerged settings. His initial mission next year will see him conducting research on the space station for eight months. 

“We have this opportunity to collaborate — as ground controllers, NASA, the entire spaceflight community, and commercial entities — that seems impossible when you really think about it: sending someone into this unforgiving environment, escaping Earth’s gravity, residing there, and surviving.” 

As the date of his flight draws nearer, he feels quite composed. “Warren Buffett once said, ‘Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.’ We strive to comprehend everything we are undertaking, taking every necessary step to prepare for spacewalks or launch so that we minimize risks as much as possible. I’m comfortable with that.” 

“You can’t journey to space without some risk. So where is that boundary?”

Around the same time Menon received approval to join the NASA program, his spouse faced her own risky decision. Anna Menon, an engineer, was presented with the chance to participate in Polaris Dawn, the private spaceflight conducted by SpaceX. This mission would venture beyond any humans had traveled since NASA’s Apollo program and would incorporate innovative technologies, such as intersatellite laser communication systems and spacesuits for external work outside the capsule. 

“That’s where I believe this inspiration aspect really emerged,” he remarked. “It was crucial for us to pursue these types of passions, to demonstrate that to our children, to embrace challenges, and to be true to who we inherently are.” 

Polaris Dawn launched on September 10, 2024, and orbited in an elliptical path about 870 miles away from Earth before successfully landing in the Gulf of Mexico a little less than five days later. Anna Menon and fellow astronaut Sarah Gillis made history by traveling farther from Earth than any women prior. (Another woman, Peggy Whitson, holds the record for the most cumulative days in space, totaling 675 across multiple missions.)

It was a transformative experience for Anna Menon to go through something demanding, her husband expressed, despite — or perhaps because of — the risks involved. He believes the spaceflight sector will need to embrace greater risks as commercial flights broaden. 

Historically, the approach has been cautious. Screen thoroughly, permit only the fittest candidates to fly, and reduce every possible risk. Aspiring astronauts undergo evaluations for a range of factors from fasting blood glucose to color perception to bone mineral density; they must excel in a physical fitness assessment and a psychological evaluation. 

However, with more civilians venturing into space, new inquiries regarding health and risk are surfacing. In 2021, actor William Shatner became the oldest individual to reach space at the age of 90. In the same year, 29-year-old physician assistant Hayley Arceneaux, a survivor of bone cancer, became the first person in space with a prosthetic limb. “We lacked knowledge about sending that kind of condition into space,” Menon remarked. 

“We’re transitioning to the viewpoint of, ‘Where is that threshold where you could be in a life-threatening situation if you traveled to space, like your probability is just so elevated that it’s unreasonable to undertake that journey?’” Menon suggested. “I ponder whether an informed individual who is comfortable with the uncertainty involved and aware of the margins of their confidence interval should be allowed to take on greater degrees of risk, knowingly and fully aware.” 

He added, “You cannot reach Mars, nor even the moon, without some risk. You cannot reach space without some risk. So where is that boundary?”