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As the COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 prolonged, researchers observed various unexpected consequences, spanning social, economic, and environmental realms.

However, the specialists predicting disease spread questioned whether infectious illnesses beyond COVID-19 would rise following the extended isolation of the community. Would maintaining social distance diminish our immunity to common ailments? Would those ailments return with fatal results?

In a study published in Science, the University of Georgia’s Tobias Brett and Pejman Rohani investigated which infectious diseases have been affected by COVID-19 control measures and, among those, which saw a resurgence. They discovered that airborne illnesses were the most prone to rebound — though not to the extent some had feared. Interestingly, the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections remained low, even long after behaviors from the pandemic shifted.

“At the start of the pandemic, there was some anxiety within the scientific community that lockdowns might hinder the circulation of other illnesses, such as influenza, potentially leading to what are termed ‘gaps in immunity.’ Essentially, if individuals aren’t contracting infections, they aren’t building immunity, creating a substantial accumulation within the susceptible population,” explained Brett, the primary author of the research and a senior research associate at the Odum School of Ecology.

By examining national disease statistics from 2019 to 2023, the investigators identified a rise in cases of airborne diseases like influenza and pertussis following COVID. However, fewer Americans contracted the flu during the pandemic and, although more individuals began to catch the flu again once lockdowns were lifted, it did not compensate for the months of social distancing that suppressed flu transmission. In other words, Americans experienced fewer flu cases during the pandemic and the subsequent years than would have been anticipated in the absence of COVID-19 and its accompanying behavioral alterations.

“This indicates that the concerns about a rebound were legitimate, yet the rebound did not offset the shortfall,” he stated. “Clearly, there were adverse outcomes connected to the lockdowns, but regarding other infectious diseases, the impact wasn’t detrimental and was indeed a net benefit.”

Airborne diseases slightly increased, STIs decreased post-pandemic

Brett and Rohani examined the reported incidents of 26 distinct pathogens, categorizing them into three groups based on transmission methods: airborne/aerosol transmitted diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, and environmentally transmitted diseases, such as foodborne illnesses or diseases carried by ticks.

They found the likelihood of other diseases surging post-pandemic was primarily influenced by their transmission methods. Airborne diseases, such as the flu, increased more, whereas STIs were less impacted.

For instance, chlamydia and gonorrhea were rising leading into the pandemic. However, the transmission of these diseases decreased in every state during COVID and remained lower than expected well after the pandemic concluded.

“Reports of those sexually transmitted diseases stagnated, and the reason remains unclear,” Brett noted. “Possible explanations might include enhanced treatment practices after COVID or a greater emphasis on public health following the pandemic. Another reasoning could involve changes in behavior. This certainly warrants further investigation.”

“More generally, this study underlines the significant unforeseen consequences of public health strategies aimed at a specific infectious disease impacting others,” remarked Rohani, Regents’ Professor and UGA Athletic Association Professor in Ecology and Infectious Diseases. “This highlights the necessity for a holistic perspective on the community of infectious diseases.”

The post Experts feared a disease rebound after COVID-19. It didn’t happen. appeared first on UGA Today.

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