“`html

The planet can extract copper to drive the green energy shift or to construct the frameworks of emerging nations—but executing both will be remarkably challenging, as per a study from the University of Michigan.

The study, co-directed by Adam Simon, a professor of earth and environmental sciences at U-M, revealed that the copper required just to maintain average economic and demographic expansion significantly surpasses the volume currently mined.

The investigators, whose findings were published in SEG Discovery, further propose that copper prices must more than double to incentivize corporations to explore new mining projects.

Copper Cascades

The investigators, which include Lawrence Cathles from Cornell University and Daniel Wood from the University of Queensland, Australia, simulated the copper requirements to sustain “business as usual” population growth and improvements in living standards.

They also assessed the copper demand for various green energy strategies, encompassing the transition to a fully electric vehicle fleet and the required grid advancements to support it; substituting fossil fuels with wind and solar energy generation; and employing wind and solar energy production that utilizes battery systems for energy storage.

For ‘business as usual,’ around 1,100 million metric tons (a metric ton equals 2,204.62 pounds) of copper needs to be sourced by 2050. Shifting to an EV fleet and the corresponding grid enhancements necessitates 1,248 million metric tons of copper. Generating energy from wind and solar involves 2,304 million metric tons of copper. Creating a grid relying on battery storage requires 3 billion metric tons of copper.

As a reference, firms mined approximately 23 million metric tons of copper in 2024.

Simultaneously, the researchers emphasize the importance of constructing infrastructure in regions such as India and Africa. India will need 227 million metric tons for infrastructure development and modernization, while infrastructure across all 54 African nations will need around one billion metric tons of copper.

“The world is increasingly in need of copper for conventional economic development, leading to tension. We advocate that the demand for copper for economic progress—essentially global human development—should take precedence over various electrification scenarios,” Simon stated. “If it comes to a choice between ‘Are you going to invest in healthcare in Africa or allow more individuals to drive a Tesla?’ I would advocate for healthcare in Africa.”

Copper Infrastructure

Copper is crucial not only for achieving sustainability objectives and electricity generation and infrastructure, but also vital for distributing clean water, sanitation systems, educational and healthcare facilities, and telecommunications networks. The quantity of copper within a nation’s infrastructure often reflects not only the country’s human development level but also the life expectancy, education level, and economic prosperity of its inhabitants.

Simon and his co-authors assert that additional mines need to emerge each year to meet copper demands. Sustaining “business as usual” growth would necessitate 78 new copper mines between now and 2050, each producing 500,000 metric tons of copper annually.

“In the United States, from 1900 to 2000—over a century of development in the U.S.—we transitioned from no plumbing to plumbing, from no electricity to electricity. Presently, for every individual in the United States, we have over 400 pounds of copper behind the walls,” Simon remarked. “In a global context, in regions like India, it’s likely only about 40 pounds of copper.”

The Copper Approach

The researchers also examined strategic uses of copper across various electrification scenarios. For instance, if we derive electricity from a combination of nuclear, wind, and solar energies, while using natural gas as a backup power source instead of relying on battery systems for energy utilization, we would require significantly less copper. Likewise, using hybrid vehicles instead of fully electric ones demands considerably less copper.

To encourage mining firms to invest in developing copper mines, the researchers propose that prices need to soar to about double their current levels—approximately $20,000 per metric ton, up from the present cost of about $9,000 per metric ton.

Furthermore, the investigators highlight that copper recycling has expanded significantly over recent years. The recycling rate has increased by 0.53% annually. If this growth remains steady until 2050, recycling will contribute approximately 13.5 million metric tons of copper by that year, slightly more than one-third of what is necessary to satisfy business-as-usual requirements.

The researchers have made an Excel spreadsheet accessible for users to explore the study’s data.

“Firstly, users can verify the study’s findings, but they can also alter the parameters and assess how much copper would be required if we had an electric grid consisting of 20% nuclear, 40% natural gas, 20% wind, and 20% hydroelectric, for example,” Simon elaborated. “They can modify those values and observe the resultant copper demand.”

“`