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A collective of astronomers from around the world, inclusive of a team from the University of Washington and spearheaded by Queen’s University Belfast, has unveiled recent findings indicating that millions of fresh solar system entities will be identified by a state-of-the-art facility anticipated to begin operations later this year.

The NSF–DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is poised to transform our understanding of the solar system’s smaller bodies — including asteroids, comets, and other minor celestial objects. 

Situated under construction on the Cerro Pachón ridge in northern Chile, the Rubin Observatory houses the 8.4-meter Simonyi Survey Telescope featuring a distinct three-mirror architecture, capable of scanning the entire visible sky every few nights. At its core is the world’s largest digital camera — the 3.2 gigapixel Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Camera — covering a 9.6 square-degree view with six filters, approximately 45 times the area of the full moon. This extensive “wide-fast-deep” system will produce 20 terabytes of data every night — crafting an unparalleled time-lapse “film” of the universe across the next decade, along with an extraordinarily powerful dataset for mapping the solar system.

The astronomer team, headed by Queen’s University’s Meg Schwamb, developed Sorcha, an innovative open-source application for forecasting potential discoveries. Sorcha is the first comprehensive simulator that incorporates Rubin’s planned observational agenda. It integrates assumptions regarding how the Rubin Observatory detects and recognizes astronomical sources within its images, paired with the most accurate model of the solar system and its smaller body reservoirs as they are currently understood.  

“Reliable simulation software like Sorcha is vital,” remarked Schwamb, a lecturer in the School of Mathematics and Physics at Queen’s University. “It informs us of what Rubin will uncover and aids us in interpreting it. Our comprehension of the objects inhabiting Earth’s solar system is on the verge of undergoing exponential and rapid expansion.” 

Alongside the eight primary planets, the solar system consists of an extensive array of small bodies that originated together with the planets over 4.5 billion years ago. Numerous smaller entities have remained largely unchanged since the solar system’s formation, serving as a fossil record of its initial phases. By investigating their orbits, sizes, and compositions, astronomers can reconstruct the history of planetary formation, migration, and evolution.

These objects — in the tens of millions -— offer a profound perspective on processes such as the delivery of water and organic materials to Earth, the alteration of planetary orbits by large planets, and the continuous hazards posed by those whose trajectories bring them close to our planet.

In addition to Queen’s University and the UW, the global team also comprises researchers from the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard & Smithsonian and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 

A collection of papers detailing the software and predictions have been accepted for publication by the Astronomical Journal and are currently accessible on arXiv.org. 

Beyond merely locating these new small bodies, Rubin Observatory will repeatedly observe them employing various optical filters, uncovering their surface colors. Previous solar system surveys typically relied on a single filter. 

“With the LSST catalog of solar system entities, our findings indicate it will be like transitioning from black-and-white television to vibrant color,” stated Joe Murtagh, a doctoral candidate at Queen’s University. “It’s incredibly thrilling – we anticipate that millions of new solar system objects will be detected, and most will be identified within the initial years of the sky survey.” 

The team’s simulations predict that Rubin will map: 

• 127,000 near-Earth entities — asteroids and comets whose orbits intersect or approach Earth. This triples the current known number, approximately 38,000, and will identify over 70% of potentially dangerous bodies larger than 140 meters. This will substantially reduce the risk of undetected asteroid impacts of catastrophic magnitude by at least twofold, making a significant contribution to planetary defense. 
• Over 5 million main-belt asteroids, up from about 1.4 million, with accurate color and rotation data on approximately one in three asteroids within the survey’s initial years. This will provide scientists extraordinary insights into the characteristics and history of the solar system’s formative elements.
• 109,000 Jupiter Trojans, bodies sharing Jupiter’s orbit at stable “Lagrange” points — more than seven times the currently cataloged amount. These bodies embody some of the most pristine material dating back to the planets’ formation. 
• 37,000 trans-Neptunian entities, inhabitants of the far-off Kuiper Belt — nearly 10 times the existing tally — illuminating Neptune’s historic migration and the outer solar system’s timeline. 
• Roughly 1,500-2,000 Centaurs, bodies on transient giant planet-crossing orbits within the middle solar system. Most Centaurs will inevitably be expelled from the solar system, yet a fortunate few will persist to become short-period comets. The LSST will deliver the first comprehensive view of the Centaurs and the critical transition phase from Centaur to comet.   

Rubin Observatory’s LSST represents a once-in-a-generation occasion to fill the gaps in our solar system knowledge, according to Mario Juric, a member of the Sorcha team and a professor of Astronomy at UW. Juric is also a team lead of Rubin’s Solar System Processing Pipelines and serves as the director of UW’s DiRAC Institute

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“Our simulations indicate that Rubin will enhance identified small-body groups by 4–9 times, providing a remarkable collection of orbits, colors, and light curves,” stated Juric. “With this information, we’ll have the opportunity to revise solar system formation textbooks and significantly bolster our capability to detect — and possibly redirect — the asteroids that might endanger Earth.” 

It required 225 years of astronomical observations to uncover the initial 1.5 million asteroids, and experts noted that Rubin will increase that figure within less than a year, according to Jake Kurlander, a Ph.D. candidate at UW. 

“Rubin’s unmatched blend of scope and detail makes it an exceptionally powerful discovery tool,” remarked Kurlander.

Siegfried Eggl, an assistant professor in Aerospace Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, added: “Only by removing biases from LSST’s intricate observing pattern can we transform raw findings into a genuine representation of the solar system’s narrative — where the planets originated, and how they shifted over eons. Sorcha is revolutionary in this regard.”

The Sorcha code is open-source and publicly accessible along with simulated catalogs and animations at https://sorcha.space. By providing these tools, the Sorcha team has empowered researchers globally to fine-tune their methods and prepare for the influx of LSST data that Rubin will produce, enhancing our comprehension of small celestial bodies that illuminate the solar system like never before. 

Rubin Observatory is set to reveal its first stunning imagery at the “First Look” event on June 23, offering the public an early insight into the power of the survey. Complete scientific operations are expected to commence later this year. 

For further details, reach out to Juric at [email protected], Kurlander at [email protected], Schwamb at [email protected], and Murtagh at [email protected].

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