A novel model indicates that the financial repercussions from climatic disruptions will be significant, yet do not always directly correspond to the magnitude of ecological effects

What will be the extent of the reduction in strawberry yields when scorching temperatures impact pollinators? How much will timber production decrease when stormy winds decimate forests? To what degree will recreational value evaporate when massive wildfires engulf mountainous communities?

These are pivotal inquiries that a newly developed computer simulation is aiding in resolving. A team of researchers, including Peter Reich from the University of Michigan, introduced a model designed to grasp the repercussions of severe weather phenomena, exacerbated by climate change, on ecosystems and the advantages they offer to humanity.

“While we are not the pioneers in this field, our approach aims to systematically connect climate disruptions with natural processes,” remarked Reich, a professor at the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability. “We are associating biodiversity with various ecological responses, some of which provide services to humanity, and exploring how we might evaluate those services in monetary terms.”

The model indicates that a forest in Minnesota could experience as much as a 50% decline in timber revenue if a severe windstorm occurs. However, Reich noted that even if every tree is downed, the precise financial impact will significantly vary based on the species mix and the size of the trees involved.

“Given the effects of climate change, there is a pressing need to account for the impacts of extreme occurrences like mega-fires and hurricanes on the benefits that nature offers,” stated Laura Dee, the lead author of the recent study published in Nature Ecology and Evolution and associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Colorado.

“This investigation marks an essential advancement towards forecasting consequences for ecosystem services, which will allow us to modify management strategies as needed.”

Researchers employ the term “ecosystem services” to denote the vital roles that nature plays in supporting human existence and welfare. For instance, tree roots cleanse water, insects assist in crop pollination, and forests sequester carbon, aiding in climate stabilization. Beyond these concrete benefits, mountains, lakes, and oceans provide recreational pleasures for individuals and bear cultural significance for communities.

Earlier models aimed at predicting ecosystem responses to climate change have generally assumed that changes occur uniformly. For instance, a gradual rise in global temperatures up to 1.5°C. However, with climate change rendering extreme weather phenomena such as wildfires and floods increasingly prevalent and severe, the impacts of abrupt disturbances have gained significance.

Dee, Reich, and their colleagues devised a new mathematical model that tracks how the likelihood of extreme weather occurrences influences certain species and the ecosystem services they deliver. Additionally, the model accounts for how societies value these services.

To demonstrate the model’s potential, the team applied it to estimate the possible outcomes of severe windstorms in a mid-latitude forest situated in northern Minnesota. This model considered how winds affect various tree species differently, each possessing distinct economic value. For instance, white cedar trees show greater resilience against windstorms compared to pine or spruce, yet the latter may command higher market prices.

The model indicated that a storm, contingent on its intensity, could reduce the overall timber value of the forest by 23% to 50%. Recreational avenues such as hiking and camping would likewise be adversely affected.

“We recognize that every element of ecological health holds significance, but quantifying the services we obtain from nature sheds light on the situation,” Reich noted.

For instance, no individual desires to lose trees to wildfires. However, when people comprehend the economic ramifications that accompany the loss of nature and biodiversity, they might be more inclined to engage in conservation efforts.

This new model further assists in pinpointing regions where scientists should prioritize controlled burns to achieve maximal reductions in fire risk while considering additional advantages that trees offer, such as absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and purifying water.

The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations reported on March 19 that over 150 unprecedented extreme weather occurrences impacted Earth in the previous year. As disruptions grow more frequent, future analyses of Gross Domestic Product, for instance, ought to begin factoring in the effects of climate change, Dee asserted.

“Nature’s contributions to humanity have not been adequately valued and are often excluded from critical decision-making procedures in the formulation of land management policies and approaches,” she emphasized. “If we neglect to account for the escalating risks posed by extreme weather phenomena, we stand to lose more than we realize.”

Authored by Yvaine Ye, University of Colorado