Researchers at Florida State University will leverage fresh funding from the National Science Foundation to explore the dynamics that contribute to wildfire propagation.
Professor of meteorology Ming Cai; Director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute (GFDI) and Professor of scientific computing Kevin Speer; Associate Professor of scientific computing Bryan Quaife; along with Jie Sun, a researcher in the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, are members of a collaborative team that has received a three-year NSF grant totaling nearly $900,000 to investigate how atmospheric conditions impact wildfires and enhance emergency responses by creating computer models and simulations of these events.
“Wildfires, which are increasing in intensity and destructiveness, endanger lives, property, and air quality,” stated Cai, the principal investigator for the study. “By recognizing crucial environmental factors that accelerate fire growth, we can offer data-driven recommendations for wildfire containment and controlled burn operations. This initiative will refine fire management tactics, lower risks to communities, and bolster air quality forecasting, benefiting both emergency personnel and the general populace.”
WHY IT MATTERS
Wildfires are recognized as one of the most urgent environmental issues of our time, threatening both human and ecological well-being, costing the U.S. between $394 billion and $893 billion each year, as reported by the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
In the past, wildfires were regarded solely as destructive forces, leading land managers to suppress all fires, causing a lengthy accumulation of wildland fuels including fallen leaves, dense bushes, and timber debris. Since the mid-20th century, land managers have increasingly relied on controlled burns as essential tools for fire management and mitigation as an overabundance of natural fuels and shifting climate conditions extend and amplify fire seasons.
The goal of the team’s research is to enhance the prediction of interactions between smoke columns — the characteristic columns of smoke, embers, and ash produced by wildfires — and atmospheric wind density currents, which are propelled by gravity as heavy air descends. The Santa Ana winds illustrate such density currents and can reach speeds comparable to hurricanes, worsening emergencies like the Palisades Fire in January in California.
“The recent fires in Los Angeles during January 2025 highlight the pressing nature of this topic, with associated economic damages estimated between $135-150 billion,” Quaife remarked. “Wildfires present significant challenges due to the intricate interactions between human-made and natural fuels, atmospheric phenomena such as the Santa Ana winds, climate change, and burgeoning populations living next to fire-sensitive regions. Smoke columns are the primary vehicles for transporting smoke and embers through complicated environments, yet many elements of these columns remain uncharted.”
HOW IT WORKS
While assessing the implications of the plume-density current relationship on wildfire propagation, the researchers will also take into account environmental variables such as vertically sheared crossflows — winds that vary in direction at different altitudes — alongside atmospheric stratification — the layering of the atmosphere based on temperature and density — and the landscape’s features.
“We aim to address fundamental questions, such as the distance plumes can carry embers before they settle and ignite new fires in a process known as spotting,” Cai stated. “Additionally, we wish to explore how the combined effects of fire intensity, atmospheric layering, and crossflow velocity influence a plume’s upper limit, shifting the smoke distribution from vertical to horizontal and impacting the geographical extent of air quality implications.”
Utilizing their collective expertise in scientific computing — the application of computers to solve scientific queries — and meteorology, the researchers will perform high-resolution simulations integrated with ember transport models, thereby enhancing the predictive accuracy for fire spread.
A LEGACY OF RESEARCH INTO FIRE DYNAMICS
Additional contributors to this initiative include David Schvartzman from the University of Oklahoma and Jielun Sun from NorthWest Research Associates.
For further information about GFDI and research in fire dynamics, please visit gfdi.fsu.edu. To find out more about meteorological research in the FSU Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, head to eoas.fsu.edu. For insights into scientific computing research and the FSU Department of Scientific Computing, visit sc.fsu.edu.
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